A recent study by a group of renowned Australian and Kiwi researchers, has confirmed that New Zealand’s smoking rate has declined twice as fast as Australia’s, reinforcing long-standing observations about the impact of vaping on smoking cessation.
A recent study found that New Zealand’s adult daily smoking rate has declined twice as fast as Australia’s over the past seven years. Putting concrete figures to facts which have been known for the last few years, the paper reported that between 2016 and 2023, New Zealand’s smoking rates dropped by 10% per year (from 14.5% to 6.8%), whereas Australia saw a slower decline of 5% per year (from 12.2% to 8.3%). The smoking decline closely mirrored vaping adoption rates in both countries – in 2023, 9.7% of New Zealand adults vaped daily, nearly three times the rate of Australia (3.5%).
In line with findings by countless other studies, the current study also reiterated that there is no evidence of a gateway effect from vaping to smoking. Youth smoking hit record lows in both countries in 2023 (0.3% in Australia and 1.2% in New Zealand), suggesting not only that vaping has not been a gateway to smoking but also that it may have actually helped divert young people away from cigarettes. In addition, while youth vaping rose more sharply in New Zealand, reaching 10% daily vaping in 2023 compared to just 3% in Australia, it leveled off after 2021 regulations and has since declined to 8.7% in 2024, therefore also dispelling the myth of a youth vaping epidemic.
Moreover, lower-income communities in New Zealand experienced a 12% annual decline in smoking—three times faster than similar communities in Australia (4% per year). Among Indigenous populations, smoking declined 16% per year in New Zealand’s Māori community, nearly three times the rate of Australia’s Indigenous population (6% per year, 2019-2023). Non-surprisingly, the sharpest smoking decline in both countries occurred among younger adults, the group with the highest vaping rates. Youth vaping in New Zealand increased initially but leveled out after regulations began in 2021 and is now declining (8.7% in 2024).
Australia’s lawmakers should take a leaf out of Canada’s book
In a blog discussing the paper, lead study author Dr. Colin Mendesohn, an award winning physician and researcher who has worked in the field of smoking cessation since the 80’s, explained that New Zealand provides regulated access to a wide variety of vaping products and flavours, selling them as adult consumer goods through licensed retailers, similar to alcohol and cigarettes. This harm reduction approach aligns with policies in the UK, US, and Canada.
In fact, Canada has recently put on hold a proposed national ban on vape flavours, following the publication of a study indicating that many smokers have managed to quit by using flavoured vapes. Moreover, the local government has vowed to exercise caution in moving ahead with such measures, in light of data indicating that such bans set in a number of local provinces have led to booming black markets.
In contrast, Australia has consistently chosen to ignore studies and expert opinions, and adopted a restrictive, medicalized model, requiring a doctor’s prescription to obtain legal vapes, which are sold exclusively in pharmacies. Most flavours are banned, and enforcement efforts have been unsuccessful in controlling the black market. Mendelsohn wrote that over 90% of vapes obtained locally are sold illegally without safety regulations. The country has also seen a rise in organized crime due to an illicit tobacco trade, with more than 220 vape and tobacco shops firebombed, New Zealand has no significant black market evidence.
Australia’s government keeps its head buried in the sand
Sadly, unlike the Canadian government, the Australian one remains stauchly opposed to change. Mendelsohn and his peers have been presenting data indicating that the local tobacco control strategy is failing for years, and in response have been faced with nothing but slammed doors. The findings of their latest study suggest that regulated vaping access could help reduce health disparities by providing effective alternatives to smoking for high-risk populations.
“In Australia, the current Labor government is impervious to the evidence about tobacco harm reduction. They are committed to a failed policy, driven by moral panic about youth vaping, ideology, politics, disinformation, financial (tax) considerations, vested interests and a partisan media,” Mendelsohn told Vaping Post.
“The substantial net public health benefit of vaping is effectively ignored. While this government stays in office, things won’t change in the short term.
“In Australia, the current Labor government is impervious to the evidence about tobacco harm reduction. They are committed to a failed policy, driven by moral panic about youth vaping, ideology, politics, disinformation, financial (tax) considerations, vested interests and a partisan media.”Dr. Colin Mendesohn, Smoking Cessation Expert
“However, as Alex Wodak often says, ‘things that can’t go on forever don’t’. Sooner or later, the evidence will be so overwhelming that it cannot be ignored,” added Mendelsohn, echoing a sentiment shared by Canadian expert David Sweanor earlier this week.
Thankfully, he concluded, there is hope in the horizon. “Furthermore, the opposition political party (the Liberal-National Coalition) party has committed to introducing a regulated consumer model as in NZ. Our next election is in May. If the Coalition wins, I expect the current policy to be gradually reversed.”